New York Rangers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-04-10 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 9 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 63.3%

NYR: 36.7%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.23

NYR: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

NYI

Marcus Hogberg - 0-0-0 | 0.714 SV% | 8.90 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Marcus Hogberg	32	23	9	71.9%	2.92	3	-6.08
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	46	44	2	95.7%	3.49	3	1.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYI at home vs NYR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	NYR 5 - 2 NYI	NYR	NYR
2026-01-29	NYR 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYR
2026-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-12-27	NYI 2 - 0 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-11-08	NYR 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	14	0	0.61
1	NYR	18	2	1.25
2	NYI	23	0	1.29
2	NYR	9	0	0.24
3	NYI	25	3	1.60
3	NYR	17	1	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 9 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1