Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-04-10 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 0 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 50.5%

WPG: 49.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.12

WPG: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	35	31	4	88.6%	3.42	6	-0.58
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	25	25	0	100.0%	2.22	0	2.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • DAL at home vs WPG: 10-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	WPG
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	17	0	0.65
1	WPG	17	0	0.67
2	DAL	14	0	0.65
2	WPG	7	1	0.73
3	DAL	12	0	0.92
3	WPG	23	5	2.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 0 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2