Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-04-11 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (74% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 73.6%

DET: 26.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.80

DET: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs DET: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	1	0.83
1	DET	17	1	0.98
2	TBL	15	1	1.11
2	DET	9	1	0.73
3	TBL	8	0	0.42
3	DET	18	0	0.76
4	TBL	0	0	0.00
4	DET	3	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 73.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.8 - 2.5