Pittsburgh Penguins at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-04-11 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

NJD: 49.9%

PIT: 50.1%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.24

PIT: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	25	21	4	84.0%	3.81	4	-0.19
PIT	Tristan Jarry	28	26	2	92.9%	2.91	2	0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • NJD at home vs PIT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NJD 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-26	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2026-01-08	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2025-11-08	NJD 2 - 1 PIT	NJD	NJD
2025-04-11	NJD 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	18	0	1.23
1	PIT	14	1	1.53
2	NJD	10	0	0.63
2	PIT	5	1	0.46
3	NJD	19	2	1.06
3	PIT	17	2	1.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0