Pittsburgh Penguins at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions
2025-04-11 • Prudential Center
New Jersey Devils 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NJD: 57.7%
PIT: 42.3%
Expected Goals
NJD: 2.90
PIT: 2.82
Total Goals
Median: 5.4
Over 5.5: 49%
Over 6.5: 33%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 15-13-1 | 0.882 SV% | 3.20 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | NJD | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.884 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.899 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.966 |
| GAA | 3.32 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NJD at home vs PIT: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | PIT | ||
| 2026-01-08 | PIT 4 - 1 NJD | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-11-08 | NJD 2 - 1 PIT | NJD | NJD |
| 2025-04-11 | NJD 2 - 4 PIT | PIT | NJD |
| 2025-03-15 | PIT 7 - 3 NJD | PIT | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:15 | NJD | Goal |
| 1 | 06:17 | NJD | Goal |
| 1 | 16:10 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 01:05 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 13:21 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 18:24 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
New Jersey Devils 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 2.9 - 2.8