Pittsburgh Penguins at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions
2025-04-11 • Prudential Center
New Jersey Devils 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NJD: 51.6%
PIT: 48.4%
Expected Goals
NJD: 3.17
PIT: 3.06
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 23-19-1 | 0.883 SV% | 3.07 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | NJD | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.884 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.873 | 0.886 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.917 | 0.940 |
| GAA | 3.32 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • NJD at home vs PIT: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | NJD 2 - 5 PIT | PIT | PIT |
| 2026-02-26 | PIT 4 - 1 NJD | PIT | PIT |
| 2026-01-08 | PIT 4 - 1 NJD | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-11-08 | NJD 2 - 1 PIT | NJD | NJD |
| 2025-04-11 | NJD 2 - 4 PIT | PIT | NJD |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:15 | NJD | Goal |
| 1 | 06:17 | NJD | Goal |
| 1 | 16:10 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 01:05 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 13:21 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 18:24 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
New Jersey Devils 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.2 - 3.1
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