Colorado Avalanche at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2025-04-12 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 5 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

LAK: 47.5%

COL: 52.5%

Expected Goals

LAK: 2.86

COL: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	26	22	4	84.6%	2.42	1	-1.58
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	33	28	5	84.8%	5.16	8	0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • LAK at home vs COL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-30	COL 8 - 4 LAK	COL	COL
2026-04-26	LAK 1 - 5 COL	COL	LAK
2026-04-23	LAK 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-21	COL 2 - 1 LAK	COL	COL
2026-04-19	COL 2 - 1 LAK	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	9	0	0.54
1	COL	5	0	0.42
2	LAK	23	3	2.10
2	COL	15	0	0.73
3	LAK	16	5	2.52
3	COL	20	1	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 5 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4