Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-04-12 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

FLA: 60.0%

BUF: 40.0%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.80

BUF: 2.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

FLA

Vitek Vanecek - 5-14-4 | 0.884 SV% | 3.62 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Vitek Vanecek	30	28	2	93.3%	2.29	1	0.29
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	37	34	3	91.9%	3.77	4	0.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • FLA at home vs BUF: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-27	FLA 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	FLA
2026-02-02	FLA 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-12	BUF 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-18	BUF 3 - 0 FLA	BUF	FLA
2025-04-12	FLA 3 - 2 BUF	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	16	0	0.74
1	BUF	12	1	0.71
2	FLA	20	2	1.37
2	BUF	16	0	0.59
3	FLA	9	0	0.38
3	BUF	11	0	0.59
4	FLA	4	1	0.37
4	BUF	4	0	0.21
5	FLA	3	1	0.90
5	BUF	3	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 3 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.8 - 2.4