Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-04-12 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 0 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

TOR: 57.3%

MTL: 42.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.22

MTL: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	15	15	0	100.0%	1.86	0	1.86
MTL	Jakub Dobes	35	34	1	97.1%	3.06	2	2.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TOR at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TOR
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	MTL
2025-04-12	TOR 1 - 0 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.62
1	MTL	11	0	0.57
2	TOR	13	0	0.93
2	MTL	13	0	0.65
3	TOR	17	2	1.37
3	MTL	12	0	0.55
4	TOR	1	0	0.14
4	MTL	1	0	0.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 0 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9