Utah Hockey Club at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-04-12 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Utah Hockey Club

Win Probability

DAL: 49.1%

UTA: 50.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.23

UTA: 3.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	34	29	5	85.3%	4.15	4	-0.85
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	24	21	3	87.5%	2.83	2	-0.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs UTA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DAL 3 - 6 UTA	UTA	UTA
2026-01-31	UTA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	UTA
2026-01-15	UTA 2 - 1 DAL	UTA	DAL
2025-11-28	DAL 4 - 3 UTA	DAL	UTA
2025-04-12	DAL 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	1	1.09
1	UTA	14	1	0.96
2	DAL	9	0	0.78
2	UTA	15	1	1.09
3	DAL	13	1	0.95
3	UTA	18	2	2.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.2 - 3.5