Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-04-13 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 4 Boston Bruins
🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 62.5%
BOS: 37.5%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.07
BOS: 2.70
Total Goals
Median: 5.4
Over 5.5: 49%
Over 6.5: 35%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 22-12-3 | 0.903 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | PIT | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.903 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.889 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.947 | — |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.84 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 29% • PIT at home vs BOS: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | BOS 1 - 0 PIT | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-04-13 | PIT 1 - 4 BOS | BOS | PIT |
| 2025-03-01 | PIT 2 - 3 BOS | BOS | PIT |
| 2024-11-29 | BOS 1 - 2 PIT | PIT | BOS |
| 2024-04-13 | PIT 4 - 6 BOS | BOS | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:57 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 08:52 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 11:56 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 19:44 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 17:30 | BOS | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 4 Boston Bruins
Expected: 3.1 - 2.7