Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-04-13 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 58.5%

TOR: 41.5%

Expected Goals

CAR: 2.99

TOR: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 43%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	20	16	4	80.0%	2.32	1	-1.68
TOR	Joseph Woll	26	25	1	96.2%	3.16	4	2.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CAR at home vs TOR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	20	2	1.12
1	TOR	8	0	0.56
2	CAR	10	0	0.31
2	TOR	13	1	0.82
3	CAR	22	2	1.72
3	TOR	14	0	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9