Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-04-13 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

TBL: 61.4%

BUF: 38.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.54

BUF: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs BUF: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	19	3	1.81
1	BUF	17	1	1.20
2	TBL	25	3	2.63
2	BUF	14	0	0.49
3	TBL	18	0	1.07
3	BUF	10	0	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1