Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-04-13 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

TBL: 66.9%

BUF: 33.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.61

BUF: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Jonas Johansson	25	21	4	84.0%	2.50	1	-1.50
BUF	James Reimer	31	24	7	77.4%	5.51	6	-1.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs BUF: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	19	3	1.81
1	BUF	17	1	1.20
2	TBL	25	3	2.63
2	BUF	14	0	0.49
3	TBL	18	0	1.07
3	BUF	10	0	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 4.6 - 2.9