Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-04-13 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 4 Buffalo Sabres
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 64.6%
BUF: 35.4%
Expected Goals
TBL: 4.60
BUF: 2.90
Total Goals
Median: 7.4
Over 5.5: 77%
Over 6.5: 64%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | TBL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.934 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.885 | — |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • TBL at home vs BUF: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | TBL 4 - 3 BUF | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-04-13 | TBL 7 - 4 BUF | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-04-05 | BUF 3 - 2 TBL | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-06 | TBL 6 - 5 BUF | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-04-15 | TBL 2 - 4 BUF | BUF | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:35 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 19:37 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 19:52 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 03:02 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:34 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:21 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:45 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 02:39 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:39 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 13:12 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:23 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 64.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 7.5
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 4 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 4.6 - 2.9