Chicago Blackhawks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-04-14 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 59.9%
CHI: 40.1%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.61
CHI: 2.80
Total Goals
Median: 6.8
Over 5.5: 71%
Over 6.5: 55%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
CHI
Spencer Knight - 19-25-11 | 0.902 SV% | 2.82 GAA
| Stat | MTL | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.909 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.851 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.933 | 0.903 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.63 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs CHI: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-18 | MTL 4 - 1 CHI | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-10-11 | CHI 2 - 3 MTL | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-04-14 | MTL 3 - 4 CHI | CHI | MTL |
| 2025-01-03 | CHI 4 - 2 MTL | CHI | MTL |
| 2023-12-22 | CHI 2 - 5 MTL | MTL | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:00 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 13:32 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 18:40 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:41 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:39 | CHI | Goal |
| 3 | 17:03 | MTL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks
Expected: 3.6 - 2.8
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