Chicago Blackhawks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-04-14 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 59.6%

CHI: 40.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.01

CHI: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	26	22	4	84.6%	5.32	5	1.32
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	24	21	3	87.5%	4.29	3	1.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs CHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-18	MTL 4 - 1 CHI	MTL	MTL
2025-10-11	CHI 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-14	MTL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	MTL
2025-01-03	CHI 4 - 2 MTL	CHI	MTL
2023-12-22	CHI 2 - 5 MTL	MTL	CHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	17	0	0.96
1	CHI	14	3	1.37
2	MTL	17	3	2.45
2	CHI	15	1	1.63
3	MTL	10	0	0.61
3	CHI	13	0	0.99
4	MTL	1	0	0.01
4	CHI	3	0	0.36
5	MTL	3	0	0.26
5	CHI	2	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1