Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-04-15 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 52.6%

TOR: 47.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.27

TOR: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • BUF at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	BUF
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	19	0	1.19
1	TOR	13	0	0.69
2	BUF	13	0	0.98
2	TOR	19	0	1.49
3	BUF	18	2	1.39
3	TOR	17	3	2.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1