Chicago Blackhawks at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-04-15 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (83% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 82.5%

CHI: 17.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.75

CHI: 2.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	16	12	4	75.0%	1.37	1	-2.63
CHI	Spencer Knight	37	34	3	91.9%	2.82	0	-0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-20	OTT 6 - 4 CHI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-28	CHI 7 - 3 OTT	CHI	OTT
2025-04-15	OTT 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	OTT
2025-03-05	CHI 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-03-28	OTT 2 - 0 CHI	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	20	0	1.39
1	CHI	6	0	0.20
2	OTT	19	0	1.05
2	CHI	9	0	0.49
3	OTT	8	0	0.39
3	CHI	11	1	0.66
4	OTT	0	0	0.00
4	CHI	1	0	0.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 82.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.3