Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-04-15 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TBL: 61.2%

FLA: 38.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.28

FLA: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

FLA

Vitek Vanecek - 5-14-4 | 0.884 SV% | 3.62 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	24	23	1	95.8%	1.73	0	0.73
FLA	Vitek Vanecek	31	26	5	83.9%	4.01	3	-0.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs FLA: 3-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	9	1	0.82
1	FLA	12	0	0.57
2	TBL	21	2	1.80
2	FLA	12	0	0.45
3	TBL	18	0	1.38
3	FLA	12	0	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0