Washington Capitals at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-04-15 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 53.0%

WSH: 47.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.18

WSH: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	36	33	3	91.7%	5.50	5	2.50
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	33	32	1	97.0%	2.56	0	1.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NYI at home vs WSH: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	12	0	0.66
1	WSH	16	1	1.39
2	NYI	16	0	0.72
2	WSH	20	1	1.51
3	NYI	18	0	1.17
3	WSH	21	3	2.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2