Washington Capitals at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-04-15 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 54.3%

WSH: 45.7%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.13

WSH: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NYI at home vs WSH: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	12	0	0.66
1	WSH	16	1	1.39
2	NYI	16	0	0.72
2	WSH	20	1	1.51
3	NYI	18	0	1.17
3	WSH	21	3	2.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8