Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-04-16 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (71% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 29.5%

CAR: 70.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.30

CAR: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	29	27	2	93.1%	3.15	2	1.15
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	22	18	4	81.8%	3.33	2	-0.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • MTL at home vs CAR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-29	CAR 6 - 1 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-27	MTL 0 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-25	MTL 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-23	CAR 3 - 2 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-21	CAR 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	1	1.23
1	CAR	7	1	0.69
2	MTL	7	0	0.68
2	CAR	18	0	0.90
3	MTL	11	1	1.42
3	CAR	20	1	1.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.3 - 3.0