Detroit Red Wings at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-04-16 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 2 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 54.7%

DET: 45.3%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.00

DET: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

NJD

Nico Daws - 3-1-0 | 0.939 SV% | 1.60 GAA

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Nico Daws	27	22	5	81.5%	3.24	2	-1.76
DET	Alex Lyon	30	28	2	93.3%	2.25	1	0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NJD at home vs DET: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	DET 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	DET
2026-03-08	NJD 0 - 3 DET	DET	NJD
2025-11-24	NJD 4 - 3 DET	NJD	NJD
2025-04-16	NJD 2 - 5 DET	DET	NJD
2024-11-29	DET 4 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	14	0	0.39
1	DET	16	0	1.09
2	NJD	10	0	0.46
2	DET	13	0	0.68
3	NJD	23	1	1.40
3	DET	12	2	1.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 2 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8