Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-04-16 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 50.8%

VGK: 49.2%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.01

VGK: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	31	27	4	87.1%	3.98	2	-0.02
VGK	Akira Schmid	17	16	1	94.1%	1.90	0	0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • VAN at home vs VGK: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	VAN 1 - 2 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-30	VGK 4 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2026-02-04	VGK 5 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2025-04-16	VAN 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VAN
2025-04-06	VAN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	16	0	1.16
1	VGK	15	0	1.03
2	VAN	12	0	0.37
2	VGK	20	1	1.27
3	VAN	9	0	0.38
3	VGK	21	1	1.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3