Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-04-16 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 50.9%

VGK: 49.1%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.14

VGK: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 91% • VAN at home vs VGK: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	VAN 1 - 2 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-30	VGK 4 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2026-02-04	VGK 5 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2025-04-16	VAN 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VAN
2025-04-06	VAN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	16	0	1.16
1	VGK	15	0	1.03
2	VAN	12	0	0.37
2	VGK	20	1	1.27
3	VAN	9	0	0.38
3	VGK	21	1	1.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.2

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.1 - 3.0