Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-04-17 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 60.9%
PHI: 39.1%
Expected Goals
BUF: 2.92
PHI: 2.87
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | BUF | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.918 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.889 | 0.667 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • BUF at home vs PHI: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | BUF 5 - 2 PHI | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-12-18 | BUF 5 - 3 PHI | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-12-03 | PHI 5 - 2 BUF | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-04-17 | BUF 5 - 4 PHI | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-29 | PHI 7 - 4 BUF | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:35 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 13:49 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 15:09 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 16:11 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 01:24 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 07:11 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 00:15 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 19:12 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 19:41 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 60.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 2.9 - 2.9