Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-04-17 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

BUF: 55.5%

PHI: 44.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.57

PHI: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs PHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	PHI
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	19	0	1.29
1	PHI	9	0	0.64
2	BUF	15	1	1.17
2	PHI	13	0	0.87
3	BUF	12	1	1.45
3	PHI	16	0	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.6 - 3.2