Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-04-17 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

TOR: 61.7%

DET: 38.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.46

DET: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs DET: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	2	1.08
1	DET	14	1	0.91
2	TOR	8	0	0.28
2	DET	19	0	0.78
3	TOR	8	0	0.74
3	DET	8	0	0.44
4	TOR	2	1	0.55
4	DET	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7