Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-04-17 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 62.1%
DET: 37.9%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.37
DET: 2.86
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
| Stat | TOR | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.893 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.887 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.951 | 0.968 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.97 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • TOR at home vs DET: 2-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | TOR 1 - 2 DET | DET | TOR |
| 2025-12-28 | DET 3 - 2 TOR | DET | DET |
| 2025-10-13 | TOR 2 - 3 DET | DET | TOR |
| 2025-10-11 | DET 6 - 3 TOR | DET | DET |
| 2025-04-17 | TOR 4 - 3 DET | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:53 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 19:19 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 02:16 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 05:50 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 03:43 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 19:58 | TOR | Goal |
| 4 | 00:56 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 62.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 3.4 - 2.9