Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-04-17 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 49.1%

WSH: 50.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.13

WSH: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • PIT at home vs WSH: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	18	2	1.22
1	WSH	10	0	0.65
2	PIT	13	1	1.43
2	WSH	17	1	1.11
3	PIT	20	0	0.91
3	WSH	6	0	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0