Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-04-17 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 49.1%

WSH: 50.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.09

WSH: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

WSH

C. Stevenson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	20	18	2	90.0%	1.99	1	-0.01
WSH	C. Stevenson	38	33	5	86.8%	3.56	3	-1.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • PIT at home vs WSH: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-07	WSH 5 - 3 PIT	WSH	PIT
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	18	2	1.22
1	WSH	10	0	0.65
2	PIT	13	1	1.43
2	WSH	17	1	1.11
3	PIT	20	0	0.91
3	WSH	6	0	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1