Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-04-22 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 47.3%

OTT: 52.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.95

OTT: 3.56

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • TOR at home vs OTT: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	1	0.82
1	OTT	13	0	0.72
2	TOR	5	0	0.14
2	OTT	18	0	0.70
3	TOR	15	0	0.64
3	OTT	10	0	0.45
4	TOR	3	0	0.16
4	OTT	2	0	0.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.0 - 3.6