Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-04-22 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 46.7%

OTT: 53.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.23

OTT: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	28	26	2	92.9%	1.96	0	-0.04
OTT	Linus Ullmark	21	18	3	85.7%	1.76	1	-1.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • TOR at home vs OTT: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	1	0.82
1	OTT	13	0	0.72
2	TOR	5	0	0.14
2	OTT	18	0	0.70
3	TOR	15	0	0.64
3	OTT	10	0	0.45
4	TOR	3	0	0.16
4	OTT	2	0	0.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1