Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-04-24 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 51.4%

TOR: 48.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.84

TOR: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	20	17	3	85.0%	2.35	2	-0.65
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	20	18	2	90.0%	2.48	2	0.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • OTT at home vs TOR: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	TOR 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	TOR
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	0	0.60
1	TOR	10	1	1.03
2	OTT	20	2	1.62
2	TOR	10	1	0.87
3	OTT	7	0	0.26
3	TOR	11	0	0.41
4	OTT	0	0	0.00
4	TOR	2	0	0.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.8 - 3.0