Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-04-24 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 60.2%

TOR: 39.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.78

TOR: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • OTT at home vs TOR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	0	0.60
1	TOR	10	1	1.03
2	OTT	20	2	1.62
2	TOR	10	1	0.87
3	OTT	7	0	0.26
3	TOR	11	0	0.41
4	OTT	0	0	0.00
4	TOR	2	0	0.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.8 - 2.8