Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-04-26 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

OTT: 50.9%

TOR: 49.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.12

TOR: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • OTT at home vs TOR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	17	1	1.24
1	TOR	11	0	0.31
2	OTT	5	0	0.34
2	TOR	12	2	1.00
3	OTT	10	0	0.32
3	TOR	12	1	0.94
4	OTT	15	0	0.33
4	TOR	19	1	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1