Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-04-26 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 49.6%

TOR: 50.4%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.34

TOR: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	34	31	3	91.2%	3.35	4	0.35
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	21	17	4	81.0%	2.23	1	-1.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • OTT at home vs TOR: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	TOR 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	TOR
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	17	1	1.24
1	TOR	11	0	0.31
2	OTT	5	0	0.34
2	TOR	12	2	1.00
3	OTT	10	0	0.32
3	TOR	12	1	0.94
4	OTT	15	0	0.33
4	TOR	19	1	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3