Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-04-29 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 0 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

TOR: 44.2%

OTT: 55.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.79

OTT: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	19	15	4	78.9%	3.61	5	-0.39
OTT	Linus Ullmark	29	29	0	100.0%	2.67	1	2.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • TOR at home vs OTT: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	16	0	0.99
1	OTT	8	0	0.55
2	TOR	10	0	0.82
2	OTT	10	1	0.64
3	TOR	17	1	0.87
3	OTT	9	4	2.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 0 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2