Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-04-29 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 0 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

TOR: 40.3%

OTT: 59.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.59

OTT: 3.53

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • TOR at home vs OTT: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	16	0	0.99
1	OTT	8	0	0.55
2	TOR	10	0	0.82
2	OTT	10	1	0.64
3	TOR	17	1	0.87
3	OTT	9	4	2.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 0 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.6 - 3.5