Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2025-05-01 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 63.0%
TOR: 37.0%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.50
TOR: 2.78
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | OTT | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.882 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.714 | 0.839 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 43% • OTT at home vs TOR: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | TOR 7 - 5 OTT | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-05-01 | OTT 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | OTT |
| 2025-04-29 | TOR 0 - 4 OTT | OTT | TOR |
| 2025-04-26 | OTT 4 - 3 TOR | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-04-24 | OTT 2 - 3 TOR | TOR | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:50 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 07:28 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 00:43 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:41 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 14:21 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 12:40 | OTT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 63.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.5 - 2.8