Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2025-05-01 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 57.4%
TOR: 42.6%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.23
TOR: 2.84
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | OTT | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.843 | 0.854 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • OTT at home vs TOR: 5-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | OTT 3 - 1 TOR | OTT | OTT |
| 2026-03-21 | OTT 5 - 2 TOR | OTT | OTT |
| 2026-02-28 | TOR 2 - 5 OTT | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-12-27 | TOR 7 - 5 OTT | TOR | OTT |
| 2025-05-01 | OTT 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:50 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 00:43 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 07:28 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 12:40 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 14:21 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:41 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.2 - 2.8
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.