Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-05-01 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 60.0%

TOR: 40.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.58

TOR: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • OTT at home vs TOR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	6	0	0.52
1	TOR	10	0	0.76
2	OTT	14	0	0.75
2	TOR	14	0	0.73
3	OTT	15	0	0.80
3	TOR	16	2	1.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.6 - 2.9