Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-04-22 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 6 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TBL: 49.9%

FLA: 50.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.41

FLA: 3.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	17	11	6	64.7%	2.55	1	-3.45
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	22	20	2	90.9%	2.00	2	-0.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs FLA: 3-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	2	0.98
1	FLA	12	0	0.81
2	TBL	13	0	0.58
2	FLA	9	1	1.41
3	TBL	11	0	0.44
3	FLA	6	0	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 6 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.6