Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-04-24 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 2 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

TBL: 48.9%

FLA: 51.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.31

FLA: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs FLA: 3-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	FLA
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	0	0.93
1	FLA	12	0	0.38
2	TBL	15	0	0.81
2	FLA	10	0	0.71
3	TBL	10	0	0.90
3	FLA	11	4	2.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 0 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3