Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-04-26 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 59.2%

TBL: 40.8%

Expected Goals

FLA: 2.84

TBL: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • FLA at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	FLA
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	15	0	1.13
1	TBL	8	1	0.53
2	FLA	16	0	0.87
2	TBL	16	0	1.06
3	FLA	13	0	0.71
3	TBL	7	1	1.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.8 - 3.0