Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-04-28 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

FLA: 59.6%

TBL: 40.4%

Expected Goals

FLA: 2.91

TBL: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • FLA at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	FLA
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	11	0	0.53
1	TBL	10	0	0.47
2	FLA	21	0	1.05
2	TBL	12	0	0.64
3	FLA	14	3	1.54
3	TBL	16	0	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1