Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-04-28 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

FLA: 54.0%

TBL: 46.0%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.32

TBL: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	20	18	2	90.0%	1.87	0	-0.13
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	23	19	4	82.6%	3.12	3	-0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • FLA at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	11	0	0.53
1	TBL	10	0	0.47
2	FLA	21	0	1.05
2	TBL	12	0	0.64
3	FLA	14	3	1.54
3	TBL	16	0	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3