Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-04-21 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

WSH: 52.0%

MTL: 48.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.27

MTL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	35	33	2	94.3%	2.88	3	0.88
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	32	29	3	90.6%	3.51	4	0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • WSH at home vs MTL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	22	2	1.43
1	MTL	17	0	0.77
2	WSH	11	2	1.14
2	MTL	12	0	0.50
3	WSH	10	0	0.65
3	MTL	22	3	1.58
4	WSH	2	0	0.29
4	MTL	1	0	0.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0