Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-04-21 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

WSH: 56.1%

MTL: 43.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.15

MTL: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • WSH at home vs MTL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	22	2	1.43
1	MTL	17	0	0.77
2	WSH	11	2	1.14
2	MTL	12	0	0.50
3	WSH	10	0	0.65
3	MTL	22	3	1.58
4	WSH	2	0	0.29
4	MTL	1	0	0.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9