Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-04-25 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 3 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

MTL: 55.0%

WSH: 45.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.16

WSH: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	21	18	3	85.7%	2.37	3	-0.63
WSH	Logan Thompson	40	34	6	85.0%	3.90	3	-2.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • MTL at home vs WSH: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	21	1	1.45
1	WSH	11	2	1.15
2	MTL	20	0	1.35
2	WSH	12	0	0.61
3	MTL	20	2	1.10
3	WSH	9	1	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1