Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-04-30 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

WSH: 61.5%

MTL: 38.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.44

MTL: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	29	28	1	96.6%	3.99	3	2.99
MTL	Jakub Dobes	28	24	4	85.7%	3.89	5	-0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • WSH at home vs MTL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	18	1	0.98
1	MTL	15	0	1.14
2	WSH	15	2	1.58
2	MTL	11	1	0.84
3	WSH	11	2	1.34
3	MTL	21	2	2.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7