St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-04-21 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

WPG: 54.8%

STL: 45.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.87

STL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	22	21	1	95.5%	1.78	0	0.78
STL	Jordan Binnington	22	20	2	90.9%	2.99	2	0.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • WPG at home vs STL: 12-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	STL 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	STL
2026-03-15	WPG 3 - 2 STL	WPG	STL
2026-01-20	WPG 3 - 1 STL	WPG	STL
2025-12-17	STL 1 - 0 WPG	STL	STL
2025-05-04	WPG 4 - 3 STL	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	15	0	0.99
1	STL	16	0	1.09
2	WPG	11	0	0.69
2	STL	14	0	0.38
3	WPG	12	2	1.31
3	STL	11	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1