St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-04-30 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 5 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

WPG: 55.4%

STL: 44.6%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.24

STL: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	19	16	3	84.2%	2.17	0	-0.83
STL	Jordan Binnington	26	21	5	80.8%	3.86	3	-1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs STL: 9-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	STL 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	STL
2026-03-15	WPG 3 - 2 STL	WPG	STL
2026-01-20	WPG 3 - 1 STL	WPG	WPG
2025-12-17	STL 1 - 0 WPG	STL	WPG
2025-05-04	WPG 4 - 3 STL	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	11	0	0.81
1	STL	11	0	0.92
2	WPG	23	2	1.48
2	STL	5	0	0.24
3	WPG	10	1	1.57
3	STL	21	0	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 5 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1