St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-05-04 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

WPG: 59.2%

STL: 40.8%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.39

STL: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 38%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	29	26	3	89.7%	4.27	3	1.27
STL	Jordan Binnington	47	43	4	91.5%	3.08	0	-0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs STL: 9-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	STL 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	STL
2026-03-15	WPG 3 - 2 STL	WPG	STL
2026-01-20	WPG 3 - 1 STL	WPG	WPG
2025-12-17	STL 1 - 0 WPG	STL	WPG
2025-05-04	WPG 4 - 3 STL	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	4	0	0.07
1	STL	12	1	0.69
2	WPG	19	0	0.84
2	STL	18	0	1.02
3	WPG	20	0	1.12
3	STL	10	2	1.58
4	WPG	15	0	0.52
4	STL	10	0	0.60
5	WPG	14	0	0.53
5	STL	10	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3