Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-04-21 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 46.9%

COL: 53.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.13

COL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • DAL at home vs COL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	16	0	1.10
1	COL	18	0	0.68
2	DAL	19	0	1.31
2	COL	15	1	1.20
3	DAL	12	2	1.32
3	COL	10	0	0.39
4	DAL	13	1	0.81
4	COL	10	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1