Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-04-23 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 71.1%

DAL: 28.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.30

DAL: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	9	1	0.52
1	DAL	16	0	0.79
2	COL	15	2	1.51
2	DAL	11	1	0.98
3	COL	18	1	1.25
3	DAL	9	1	0.61
4	COL	5	0	0.50
4	DAL	3	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6