Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-04-23 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 66.6%

DAL: 33.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.38

DAL: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	28	26	2	92.9%	2.63	2	0.63
DAL	Jake Oettinger	28	27	1	96.4%	3.79	4	2.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • COL at home vs DAL: 7-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	DAL 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	9	1	0.52
1	DAL	16	0	0.79
2	COL	15	2	1.51
2	DAL	11	1	0.98
3	COL	18	1	1.25
3	DAL	9	1	0.61
4	COL	5	0	0.50
4	DAL	3	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.4 - 2.6