Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-04-26 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 0 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

COL: 69.5%

DAL: 30.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.61

DAL: 2.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 47%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	23	23	0	100.0%	2.18	2	2.18
DAL	Jake Oettinger	48	44	4	91.7%	4.91	5	0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	COL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	22	2	1.67
1	DAL	13	2	0.99
2	COL	28	1	1.90
2	DAL	9	0	0.18
3	COL	18	2	1.35
3	DAL	15	0	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 0 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.6 - 2.0