Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-05-01 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 7 - 4 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

COL: 66.8%

DAL: 33.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.76

DAL: 2.54

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	26	22	4	84.6%	2.12	1	-1.88
DAL	Jake Oettinger	48	41	7	85.4%	4.98	4	-2.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs DAL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	COL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	30	0	1.25
1	DAL	14	0	0.33
2	COL	23	1	1.94
2	DAL	14	1	1.44
3	COL	17	3	1.79
3	DAL	12	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 7 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.8 - 2.5