Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-05-03 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 37.1%

COL: 62.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.56

COL: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • DAL at home vs COL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	0	0.47
1	COL	12	2	1.06
2	DAL	12	0	0.86
2	COL	15	0	0.76
3	DAL	10	2	1.67
3	COL	21	1	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.6 - 3.3