Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-04-22 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 64.3%

MIN: 35.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.58

MIN: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	17	12	5	70.6%	2.87	2	-2.13
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	32	30	2	93.8%	2.98	1	0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs MIN: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-29	VGK 3 - 2 MIN	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	16	0	0.79
1	MIN	17	0	1.15
2	VGK	23	1	1.32
2	MIN	5	0	0.33
3	VGK	16	0	0.87
3	MIN	13	2	1.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 5 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.6 - 2.7