Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-04-24 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 5 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (65% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 35.2%

VGK: 64.8%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.66

VGK: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	32	30	2	93.8%	3.13	4	1.13
VGK	Adin Hill	31	26	5	83.9%	3.51	2	-1.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MIN at home vs VGK: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-29	VGK 3 - 2 MIN	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	9	0	0.63
1	VGK	15	0	0.67
2	MIN	18	0	0.92
2	VGK	14	0	0.82
3	MIN	12	2	1.96
3	VGK	20	4	1.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 5 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.7 - 3.4