Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-04-26 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

MIN: 35.3%

VGK: 64.7%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.73

VGK: 3.60

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	46	42	4	91.3%	4.00	3	-0.00
VGK	Adin Hill	32	29	3	90.6%	3.11	1	0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MIN at home vs VGK: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-29	VGK 3 - 2 MIN	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	6	0	0.54
1	VGK	15	0	0.92
2	MIN	12	0	0.94
2	VGK	21	1	1.20
3	MIN	10	0	0.71
3	VGK	15	1	0.94
4	MIN	16	1	0.92
4	VGK	17	1	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.7 - 3.6