Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-04-29 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

VGK: 64.2%

MIN: 35.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.52

MIN: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	22	20	2	90.9%	2.16	1	0.16
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	32	29	3	90.6%	3.25	0	0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs MIN: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-29	VGK 3 - 2 MIN	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	23	0	1.40
1	MIN	13	0	0.60
2	VGK	15	0	1.09
2	MIN	13	0	0.65
3	VGK	7	0	0.28
3	MIN	10	1	0.91
4	VGK	6	0	0.48
4	MIN	1	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7