Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions
2025-05-01 • Xcel Energy Center
Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MIN: 55.6%
VGK: 44.4%
Expected Goals
MIN: 2.99
VGK: 3.05
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MIN
Filip Gustavsson - 20-9-6 | 0.906 SV% | 2.64 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | MIN | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.912 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.895 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.902 | 1.000 |
| GAA | 2.47 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MIN at home vs VGK: 2-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | VGK 2 - 5 MIN | MIN | VGK |
| 2025-11-16 | MIN 3 - 2 VGK | MIN | MIN |
| 2025-05-01 | MIN 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | MIN |
| 2025-04-29 | VGK 3 - 2 MIN | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-04-26 | MIN 3 - 4 VGK | VGK | MIN |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:30 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 19:56 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 16:12 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 16:02 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 16:33 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.0 - 3.1