Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-05-01 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

MIN: 34.0%

VGK: 66.0%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.71

VGK: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	24	21	3	87.5%	2.32	2	-0.68
VGK	Adin Hill	31	29	2	93.5%	2.88	2	0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MIN at home vs VGK: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-29	VGK 3 - 2 MIN	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	15	0	0.93
1	VGK	15	0	0.75
2	MIN	16	0	0.76
2	VGK	13	0	0.75
3	MIN	15	2	1.19
3	VGK	8	2	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.7 - 3.3