Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-05-05 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Florida Panthers
🚨 Upset Win (64% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 36.1%
FLA: 63.9%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.03
FLA: 3.23
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 73%
Over 6.5: 57%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
FLA
Sergei Bobrovsky - 27-23-1 | 0.877 SV% | 3.07 GAA
| Stat | TOR | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.922 | 0.915 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.80 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • TOR at home vs FLA: 6-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | TOR 2 - 6 FLA | FLA | FLA |
| 2026-02-26 | FLA 5 - 1 TOR | FLA | FLA |
| 2026-01-06 | TOR 4 - 1 FLA | TOR | FLA |
| 2025-12-02 | FLA 1 - 4 TOR | TOR | FLA |
| 2025-05-18 | TOR 1 - 6 FLA | FLA | FLA |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:33 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 12:51 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 16:57 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 17:16 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 07:50 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 01:39 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 04:30 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 14:00 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 18:05 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 63.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Florida Panthers
Expected: 3.0 - 3.2
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