Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-05-05 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 44.7%

FLA: 55.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.16

FLA: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	29	25	4	86.2%	2.87	0	-1.13
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	30	25	5	83.3%	3.74	3	-1.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • TOR at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	20	1	1.35
1	FLA	6	0	0.61
2	TOR	8	0	0.53
2	FLA	14	0	0.76
3	TOR	17	2	1.86
3	FLA	27	0	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2