Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-05-07 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 49.3%

FLA: 50.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.17

FLA: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	28	25	3	89.3%	3.05	2	0.05
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	20	16	4	80.0%	2.32	2	-1.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • TOR at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	1	0.74
1	FLA	10	1	0.67
2	TOR	10	0	0.70
2	FLA	17	0	1.03
3	TOR	13	1	0.88
3	FLA	24	1	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1