Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-05-09 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 5 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

FLA: 66.6%

TOR: 33.4%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.53

TOR: 2.50

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 42%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	31	27	4	87.1%	2.60	2	-1.40
TOR	Joseph Woll	36	31	5	86.1%	3.90	2	-1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • FLA at home vs TOR: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	20	1	1.01
1	TOR	16	2	1.51
2	FLA	12	1	1.67
2	TOR	5	0	0.40
3	FLA	13	0	0.41
3	TOR	10	0	0.38
4	FLA	15	0	0.81
4	TOR	9	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 5 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.5 - 2.5